Sunday, April 3, 2011

Part 2 – Topic 3 Incidence, Prevalence and Fertility Statistics


 

Topic Introduction

-          morbidity statistics

-          relative incidence of sickness and injury occurring among given group of people.

-          morbidity – percentage of people in a population who get sick from a particular disease.

 

 

Definitions

 

-           risk à proportion

-          rate à measure over time

o   special type of ratio

o   numerator included in denominator

o   example

§  5523 deaths , of which 221 due to coronary heart disease

§  proportion of total deaths due to coronary heart disease is 221 / 5523 or 4%

-          population – any defined group of people

-          morbidity – disease, illness, injury  - non- death health outcome

-          mortality – death

-          risk % - number of events / number in pop

-          rate – number of events – time measure

o   another type of ratio

-          ratio – number of cases / population

-          mid year population – time measure

-          person – years observation – time measure.

 

 

Some disadvantages of morbidity data

 

-          issues

o   not routinely collected (except for some infectious diseases)

o   expensive to collect

o   can go out of date as knowledge of disease increases rapidly.

o   changes to criteria for including / excluding a case.

 

 

-          surveillance

o   continuous / systematic process

o   collection / analysis / interpretation / dissemination

o   descriptive information for monitoring health problem.

-          surveillance systems

o   passive

§  cases of reportable diseases reported as they are observed

o   active

§  periodic (weekly) calls / visists to institutions etc to obtain required data

o   sentinel

§  relies on reports of disease (which is a preventable event) that can be used to identify problem in system of prevention / detection or treatment.

 

 

[google trends for flu etc     http://www.google.org/flutrends/

 

 

Morbidity Measures

 

-          incidence

o   number of new cases of disease within defined population during specified time period.

o   incidence rate

§  number of newly reported cases of given disease

§  in a calendar year

§  divided by mid year population

§  quotient multiplied by convenient factor

o   types

§  cumulative incidence

§  incidence density

-          cumulative incidence

o   total number of people who become diseased during specified period of time

o   provides an estimate of probability / risk that individual will develop disease during specified period of time

o   assumes entire population at rik has been followed up for entire specified period of time

-          incidence density

o   accounts for varying time periods of follow up, and thus maximizes whatever data is available

o   = number of new cases during given time period  / total person time of observation (disease free)

o   denominator à sum of each individuals time at risk or sum of that time each person remained under observation and free from disease.

-          prevalence

o   number of affected persons in population at specific time / number of persons in population at that time

o   types

§  point prevalence

·         number of persons (old & new) in defined population who have specified outcome at single point in time

§  period prevalence

·         combination of point prevalence and incidence

 

 

Relationship between Incidence and Prevalence

 

-          incidence measures appearance of disease  à new

-          prevalence measures existence of disease  à all

o   depends on 2 factors  : incidence and duration of disease

-          assuming steady state situation

o   prevalence = incidence * duration

-          Four common measures of morbidity:

 

 

Type

Disease

Measure

Definition

Risk

Existing

Point prevalnce

persons with disease at given time / total pop at that time

Risk

New

Cumulative incidence

number of new cases in time period / number of persons at risk at beginning of period

Risk

Existing and new

Period prevalence

total number of cases in time period / mid period pop

Rate

New

Incidence rate (or density)

number of new cases in time period / person years of observation

 

 

 

Measures of Fertility

 

-          fertility – occurrence of births , especially live births

-          vs fecundity à capacity to bear children  à upper bound for fertility

-          Crude birth rate

o   number of births in defined population during specified period / mid year pop

o   quotient multiplied by 1000

-          General fertility rate

o   number of live births in calendar year / number of women ages 15 – 44 at mid year

o   give heterogenous figure à overlooks age condition of female population in child bearing age

-          Age Specific Birth rate (ASBR) or Age Specific Fertility rate (ASFR)

o   number of resident live births to women in specific age group for specified geographic  area / total pop of women in same age group for same time period / geographic region.

-          Total Fertility rate (TFR)

o   more practical measure of pop growth

o   age specific fertility rates combined

o   single rate  à TFR

o   TFR à age groups between 10 and 49

o   TFR = (∑  ASBR) * 5

o   rate estimates number of children a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 females in specified pop would bear if they all went thru their childbearing years experiencing the same age specific birth rates for a specified time period.

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